(Research Scholar, Geopolitical and Strategic Security Institute[gpssi], Hyderabad
The recent attack on Israel embassy on feb13 in INDIA and Georgia has become the hot news in the geopolitical scenario. The speculation on the attack on the Israel diplomat car is being termed as the attack by IRAN, but IRAN termed this attack as a self attack by Israel. Before we come to an understanding on the present problem we need to get instances that happened in flashback like any other Indian movies which reveal reason of present kayos. This flashback has to be peeped in as a set of instances.
Instance1: improvisation of their nuclear capacity.
Instance 2: IRAN opposes the supply of oil to EU countries and AMERICA and finding its own customers like INDIA and Georgia
Instance3: rejection of dollar dictatorship in imports and exports
Instance 4: Increase of Islam power in geopolitical scenario
Let us analyze the instances and their relations which constituted for the present situation:
IRAN stands fourth position in terms of oil reserves, second in terms of natural gas reserves and the third-largest crude oil exporter in the world, after Saudi Arabia and Russia. According to The BP Statistical Review 2011, US Energy Information Administration (EIA), IRAN has about 137 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, 9.3% of the world’s total reserves. IRAN accounts for 5.2% of global oil production in 2010. IRAN crude oil exports chart is presented below:
As stated by official sources nearly 65% of revenue comes from oil and natural gas. However, IRAN still imports food items like maize and raw materials like steel. IRAN imports over 3.5 million tons of maize a year. The US and EU sanction are making imports especially food costlier. It’s been found that IRAN has been bartering oil for food.
What’s made IRAN stop the crude oil supply to west?
Here to study the reason why IRAN has stopped the supply of crude oil to its leading suppliers, we need to study the history which resulted for the root cause of this tension.
History portrays the fight between the three religions Islam, Christianity and Jews, who fought continuously from thousands of years to project themselves as great. As a process of this there happened many battles like Balkan peninsula battles, world war against Hitler who massacred thousands of Jews in England etc…, in this process extremists in these three religions started working hard to strengthen themselves in terms of money, power, science and technology . This is the main base of industrial revolution. The quest to prove themselves scientifically advanced a unhealthy competition grew as all three extremists found a principle that science and technology could increase their power to attack and threaten their enemy nations by developing new equipment in military and defense application. Rest of the technological developments how they constituted to fight war to technologically is known to us. The most advanced technology is found to be nuclear technology which is a power weapon which can’t be encountered. By the end of 1990 almost topmost nations like USA, Russia, and china projected to the world that they are masters in nuclear technology. Infuriated Islamic nations with a quest to join the nuclear club the Islamic nation IRAN started its efforts to become nuclear powered country.
Role nuclear technology to become reason to cease oil to west:
The first introduction to nuclear technology to IRAN was done by china. In year 1990 IRAN signed a nuclear cooperation agreement deal with china to train Iranian nuclear engineers. In addition, China has already built a nuclear research reactor in IRAN that became operational in 1994. In 2002, IRAN revealed that it had purchased special gas from China that could be used to enrich uranium for the production of nuclear weapons. The gas purchase was supposed to be reported to the IAEA, but it was concealed instead. Chinese experts have also been involved in the supervision of the installation of centrifuge equipment that can be used to enrich uranium.
According to the CIA, “IRAN continues to use its civilian nuclear energy program to justify its efforts to establish domestically or otherwise acquire the entire nuclear fuel cycle. IRAN claims that this fuel cycle would be used to produce fuel for nuclear power reactors, such as the 1,000-megawatt light-water reactor that Russia is continuing to build at the southern port city of Bushehr. However, IRAN does not need to produce its own fuel for this reactor because Russia has pledged to provide the fuel throughout the operating lifetime of the reactor and is negotiating with IRAN to take back the irradiated spent fuel.”
This particular Busher nuclear project is backed by Russians to enrich the nuclear fuel cycle with a an agreement of supply of fuel to run to the nuclear reactor served two purposes one is it provided great training for Iranian engineers and the other is it served as a great base for Iranians to join the nuclear club. This busher project was completed in 2008 and IRAN received the final shipment of uranium fuel from Russians after many ups and downs in geopolitical happenings, on January 28, 2008. It now has 82 tons of fuel for the power plant, which began operating in the summer of 2008 at half its 1,000-megawatt capacity as stated by Washington Post, March 13, 2007.
IRAN trying to enrich the uranium by a process of taking mined uranium is processed into gas, then that gas is spun in centrifuges to purify it. Low-enriched uranium at around 3.5 percent is used to produce fuel rods that power a reactor; however, the same process can be used to produce highly enriched uranium at around 90 percent purity that can be used to build a warhead. IRAN government repeatedly stated that this enriching of uranium is to meet the civilian requirements and also to power its own nuclear reactors. IRAN also received assistance for this particular program in 1990 was assisted by china.
One step ahead IRAN aimed and started working to make indigenous equipment for the nuclear research reactor. The irony is many super powers who are also the leading manufacturers of nuclear equipment considered this attempt as disruption of peace. The result of warning is assassination of Iranian scientist involved in nuclear fuel enrichment and fuel rods program. Iran spokesperson khazee stated that: Based on the existing evidence collected by the relevant Iranian security authorities, similar to previous incidents, perpetrators used the same terrorist method in assassinating Iranian nuclear scientists, i.e., attaching a sticky magnetic bomb to the car carrying the scientists and detonating it,” Khazaee said in a statement. He also added that-“I would like to emphasize, once again, that the Islamic Republic (of) IRAN would not compromise over its inalienable right to use nuclear energy for peaceful purposes and any kind of political and economic pressures or terrorist attacks targeting the Iranian nuclear scientists, could not prevent our nation in exercising this right”. Brig. Gen. Yoav Mordechai, a spokesman for the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), said on his Face book page Wednesday: “I have no idea who targeted the Iranian scientist but I certainly don’t shed a tear.” Official authorities of IRAN analysts here say that Israel’s mossad is very likely involved in a joint venture among foreign intelligence agencies that want to ratchet up pressure on IRAN as new economic sanctions bite.
Over the same period of time, computers managing the enrichment efforts have been paralyzed by two computer viruses – Stuxnet and Duqu, which was solved later. Finally after all the struggles IRNA installed new fuel rods in research reactor intended to produce medical isotopes used in the treatment of cancer patients. It requires fuel enriched to around 20 percent, considered a threshold between low and high enriched uranium.
EU and AMERICA allies threaten the ceasing of central bank of IRAN and their imports of oil from IRAN if they continue to raise their experiments on nuclear technology. The plot is to stop importing oil from IRAN and isolate IRAN so that the currency value of IRAN will get in to depression which will for sure result in a situation where IRAN has to fall on the feet of EU and US allies. As a process of that EU has warned to stop the exporting of crude oil which constitutes to 0.8%.
The US sanctions against IRAN are broad and sweeping. For example, in late 2011, the US froze all assets of Iranian financial institutions, including those of the Central Bank of IRAN. It also passed a law that proposed sanctions on foreign institutions that conducted financial transactions with the Central Bank of IRAN. As IRANs shortage of food, steel, raw materials and other commodities made USA hike the prices on these purchases which made the IRAN to barter these food for oil. Too much hike made IRAN currency rate beneath the margin drastically and create a huge inflation and economic drop down. The official inflation rate has jumped to 20% from single digits within the last year and a half. The reason: IRAN introduced a wave of reforms in late 2010, which lopped off major energy and food subsidies.
The latest reports of The New York Times states that: IRAN’s currency, the rial, has plummeted against the dollar. The unofficial rate for the rial in Tehran is said to be about 23,000 rial to the dollar, down from 11,000-12,000 in December.
Infuriated IRAN: Rejection of dollar dominancy:
IRAN infuriated by the financials sanction of usa made the IRAN to come up with brave way to avoid the imports and exports transaction in dollars. IRAN already started trading in gold with china and also in talks with INDIA to purchase of goods from INDIA in the rupees.
The Iranian ministry of public relation AR Nikzad declared the cease of oil supplies to EU allies, French and US and stated that they chose new customers.
Iranian former official said “Both China and INDIA are happy to keep IRAN’s money in their banks and try to get IRAN involved in barter deals to sell their junk, or give yuan and rupees instead of hard currencies,”
Recent news published confirms the news in TIMES OF INDIA states that:
“Indian and Iranian governments have worked out Rupee trade mechanism for payment of INDIA’s total crude imports from the latter in Rupees rather than convertible currency – the US Dollar normally used for such trade globally. The new mechanism is expected to be operational in two months. This arrangement comes in wake of American and European anti-nuclear sanctions that are increasingly disrupting IRAN’s economy. “
Anup K Pujari, Director General of Foreign Trade stated to media that a decision to denominate our trade in rupee terms was taken at a bilateral meeting of two countries as trade cannot be done using international currency. “It is not barter, but it is almost like barter.” whatever oil INDIA imports from IRAN and for that oil whatever money INDIA is supposed to pay, part of that amount will be retained in a bank in INDIA. Thereafter, any Indian who exports to IRAN need not have to bother about some US bank. Once (export) documents are negotiated, the designated Indian Bank, where the money will be kept, will pay the exporter the equivalent amount in Indian currency.
Anup said the foreign delegation that INDIA mounts will have the opportunity to sell rice, cashew, carpets and whole range of items that do not fall under the purview of the sanctions. “Since we have to anyway import oil from IRAN,” Anup said, exports to that nation will ensure that 25% of that bill (kept in Indian bank) will anyhow be negotiated.
The result of all these happenings which is going to stop the pooling of dollars in to American government is well depicted in words of former secretary of state for political affairs Nicholas Burns words as follows:
“This is bitterly disappointing news for those of us who have championed a close relationship with INDIA. And, it represents a real setback in the attempt by the last three American presidents to establish a close and strategic partnership with successive Indian governments, INDIA’s decision to walk out of step with the international community on IRAN isn’t just a slap in the face for the US… it raises questions about its ability to lead,”
The bitter truth behind the dollar dictator brains is well stated by voice of the Islamic Revolution as “The dispute over IRAN’s nuclear program is nothing more than a convenient excuse for the US to use threats to protect the ‘reserve currency’ status of the dollar,”
This scenario clearly depicts a plot made to stop the dollar dictatorship to loot the third world countries.
If we observe the past the leaders who opposed the dictator ship of dollar were sentenced to death by the cheap countries that claim themselves as super powers and try to dictate the world with their criminal attitudes.
Saddam announced Iraq would no longer accept dollars for oil purchases in November 2000 and the US-Anglo invasion occurred in March 2003,” Even in the Libya gadaffi rejected the involvement of EU and AMERICA in its state affairs and rejected dollar dominancy, also the same thing happened. “Similarly, IRAN opened its oil bourse in 2008, so it is a credit to Iranian negotiating ability that the ‘crisis’ has not come to a head long before now.”
The rivalry between IRAN and Israel-American lobby:
The rivalry between IRAN and Israel is driven by religious thoughts of Jews and Islam which is a rivalry happening from thousands of years together. As INDIA tied up relations with IRAN and that too with transaction being done not in dollar, has infuriated AMERICA so in order to bring the tie ups between INDIA and IRAN under pressure AMERICA based Israeli lobby planted a magnetic car bomb which is similar to that used in assassination of IRAN scientist. This statement can be made clear by the following case study:
Let us have close look the car bomb attacks happened in IRAN and INDIA if we observe the common thing is bike being used and magnetic pieces found. Observe the screenshot below:
Recent report by INDIA police states that:
“The bomb composition is also being examined and preliminary reports show the presence of magnetic pieces and also sulphur. The bomb was packed tightly and was small in size so that it could be attached easily on to a moving vehicle. Moreover, it was triggered with the help of a cell phone, preliminary investigations show. “
Even the IRAN scientist investigation reports also tell the same. Official report of IRAN says that:
“Ahmadi-Rohsan was killed in a manner now terrifyingly familiar in Tehran. In November 2010, not far from the scene of Wednesday’s assassination, there were two identical attacks involving assailants on motorbikes and magnetic bombs.”
It is evident that attack is a plot made by opponent of Iran and this particular attack brings two aspects in to picture:
Iran is not enough foolish to make such kind of attacks when it is extending relations in a wider scale.As it is aware of the fact that this kind of attacks will for sure ruin their trading relationships.
If we consider this point a fact comes out stating that in order to ruin relations between India and Iran this attack might have been someone else?? When EU countries and USA warned iran to stop nuclear experiments if not they will supply the importing of oil from them!! A heavy reply was given by iran stating that we stop supplies to both EU and USA allies and stated that we found our new customers
One is rejection of dollar: Another point is it also made deal that importing from other countries is only done in importing country respective currency..